The SA Politics Thread

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stumpjumper
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Re: The SA Politics Thread

#526 Post by stumpjumper » Fri May 23, 2014 8:15 pm

Monotone, you wrote:
It's not a popularity contest across the state. We have to look at it seat by seat. That tells a much different story, and the more important story.
That's the mantra of a party which has gained a majority of seats, but not of votes.

If each seat has equal numbers of two-party preference votes, the winner should have the majority of seats and the majority of seats. In the Westminster system with two parties, any seat which has a lot more voters of one side than the other is called a 'rotten borough' and too many of them result in a gerrymander. What's more, each seat is supposed to have about the same number of voters in total.

The problem in SA is that to achieve equal numbers of each of the two primary parties in each seat is geographically impossible. Each geographically huge, sparely populated country seat, which tend to vote conservative, would have to have a spike into the dense metropolitan area where there are more Labor voters.

The best the electoral commissioner can do is to ensure that each side has about the same chance of winning half the seats, unless that side is really on the nose. In other words, rotten boroughs are tolerated, as long as there are equal numbers of them on both sides.

It is this balance of seats, not voters, that Isobel Redmond reckons the electoral commissioner could provide but hasn't. Hence the accusation of 'utter corruption' she has made against the commissioner, implying that the commissioner favours Labor.

Redmond's point can be argued, I think. The charge would be hard to prove.

What is crook, though, is the practice of paying elected representatives to switch allegiances after the election. THAT should be outlawed.

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Re: The SA Politics Thread

#527 Post by Aidan » Sat May 24, 2014 12:39 am

What you've described are known, both here and in Westminster, as safe seats.

Rotten boroughs has a completely different meaning.
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Re: The SA Politics Thread

#528 Post by stumpjumper » Sat May 24, 2014 12:02 pm

Thanks Aidan. You learn something every day. Ok, in my post above, for 'rotten borough' read 'safe seat'.

There shouldn't be safe seats either, under a perfect system.

The last result wasn't illegal, and I think the Libs have won occasionally with fewer 2PP votes than Labor, but I agree with Redmond, and the SA Constitution, that the party that gets the majority of votes should govern.

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Re: The SA Politics Thread

#529 Post by monotonehell » Sat May 24, 2014 2:37 pm

stumpjumper wrote:... but I agree with Redmond, and the SA Constitution, that the party that gets the majority of votes should govern.
Poorly/corruptly drawn electoral boundaries are a different matter.

Majority wins is not democracy. We elect a representative to each seat. Those individual seats go on to form a (hopfully) representative government. It's about equal representation in the house. Otherwise all government would be is a bully of which ever majority there is, "tyranny of the majority",
Exit on the right in the direction of travel.

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Re: The SA Politics Thread

#530 Post by Dog » Sat May 24, 2014 3:25 pm

The current boundaries are not the problem, it was the Liberals vicious campaigning against Liberal minded independents that lost them the election. It's personalities not votes that kept them from government.


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Re: The SA Politics Thread

#531 Post by Aidan » Sat May 24, 2014 5:57 pm

stumpjumper wrote:There shouldn't be safe seats either, under a perfect system.
A perfect system is impossible! If every seat can go either way, there's very little chance of ensuring whoever gets the next votes gets the most seats.
The last result wasn't illegal, and I think the Libs have won occasionally with fewer 2PP votes than Labor, but I agree with Redmond, and the SA Constitution, that the party that gets the majority of votes should govern.
Apart from the boundary redraw, the SA constitution says nothing about it. And what about people like me who vote with the aim of getting a hung parliament?
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Re: The SA Politics Thread

#532 Post by stumpjumper » Sat May 24, 2014 8:07 pm

'Apart from the boundary redraw', Aidan, surely includes all dispositions of boundaries except the very first boundaries drawn, as all boundaries are now effectively the result of the last redraw. So s.83 of the SA Constitution Act applies:
83. (1) In making an electoral redistribution the Commission must ensure, as far as practicable,
that the electoral redistribution is fair to prospective candidates and groups of candidates so that, if candidates of a particular group attract more than 50 per cent of the popular vote (determined by aggregating votes cast throughout the State and allocating preferences to the necessary extent), they will be elected in sufficient numbers to enable a government to be formed.
Of course the phrase in the first line, 'as far as practicable' is the let out clause which allows a 'group' attracting less than 50% of the popular vote to form a government.

As to wanting to get a hung parliament, I appreciate your sentiment but don't think much of the method. The usual and unfortunate result of a hung parliament is a knife edge majority or minority government, in which a very few individuals wield almost all the power. Fine if they're sane...

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The SA Politics Thread

#533 Post by Aidan » Sun May 25, 2014 12:07 am

stumpjumper wrote:'Apart from the boundary redraw', Aidan, surely includes all dispositions of boundaries except the very first boundaries drawn, as all boundaries are now effectively the result of the last redraw. So s.83 of the SA Constitution Act applies:
83. (1) In making an electoral redistribution the Commission must ensure, as far as practicable,
that the electoral redistribution is fair to prospective candidates and groups of candidates so that, if candidates of a particular group attract more than 50 per cent of the popular vote (determined by aggregating votes cast throughout the State and allocating preferences to the necessary extent), they will be elected in sufficient numbers to enable a government to be formed.
Of course the phrase in the first line, 'as far as practicable' is the let out clause which allows a 'group' attracting less than 50% of the popular vote to form a government.
Reality is the factor that allows a group attracting less than 50% of the popular vote to form a government. The phrase is there to prevent the commission from being constitutionally obliged to do the impossible.

Unless the system is changed so we vote separately for the executive and legislature, or we swap the voting system of the upper and lower houses, there is always a chance that the party with the most votes won't get the most seats. What do you think should be done about it?
As to wanting to get a hung parliament, I appreciate your sentiment but don't think much of the method. The usual and unfortunate result of a hung parliament is a knife edge majority or minority government, in which a very few individuals wield almost all the power. Fine if they're sane...
It's surprising how many people believe that myth despite all the evidence. But in reality the bad decisions tend to be official party policy, with no way of stopping the party leaders wielding almost all the power. Fine if they're sane....

Seriously, how many times can you think of that our state has been worse off because of a hung parliament? And how many bad decisions can you think of that would've been prevented by a hung parliament?

And if you still have any doubts, look at how much better the Rann government was when it didn't have an overall majority than when it did.
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Re: The SA Politics Thread

#534 Post by rev » Mon May 26, 2014 9:23 am

monotonehell wrote:
rev wrote:I haven't read it..merely skipped through it quickly.

I don't disagree with protecting the environment. But I think a compromise between protecting the environment and mining is needed.
We need mining because we need the resources, but we also obviously need our environment and ecosystems.

I don't care about same sex marriage..whether it's legalized or not, although I don't see a reason for it not to be.

Renewable energy should be something that we logically look to increase and improve the technology involved with it. Not because of some fear mongering about global warming, but because it is logically the next step in our energy needs. In my mind anyway.

Refugees..please, when will people wake up and realize a person who uses his/her passport/documents to board flights from one country to the next before arriving in Indonesia to board a fishing boat to Australia, who then destroys his/her passport/documents, is not a legitimate refugee or asylum seeking.
What such people are seeking is a back door into Australia for financial gain/benefit. They aren't even economic refugees. Just dishonest people.
And I'm not saying that everyone that comes on a boat is like that, but many of them are.

Like I've said before, I know refugees who came here from Yugoslavia in the 1990's. They came here on planes, with their passports and other documents.
What, was the war in Yugoslavia a picnic compared to other wars around the world today?
So fundamentally you pretty much agree with them.


And yet...
rev wrote:Sarah Hanson Young can climb aboard a rocket bound for orbit, and go live in lala land.
Ranting and raving loudly in front of news cameras doesn't make her right. The Greens would be better of without her, and would probably appeal to more people if lunatics like her weren't front and center for the party.
Why the rage? What exactly has she said that was worthy of your vitriol?
I may technically agree on some points with them, but I may not agree on how to implement those things.
For example, do the Greens believe or support far tougher and thorough scrutiny on welfare recipients? Do they agree on cracking down on job network providers who have been rorting the system for too many years?
I might agree on helping the less fortunate but I don't agree on throwing money at anyone who asks.

And I'm pretty sure I and the Greens couldn't disagree any more on illegal boat arrivals if we tried. My view is that the government should get even tougher. The Greens? Well, I'd get Sarah Hanson Young yelling at a news camera about me being the spawn of the devil.

An example of why I'm opposed to her, and think the Greens would be better off without the lunatic, is her response to Abbott winking at an ABC radio host, over an elderly lady caller who announced she was a phone-sex worker.
She didn't demand an explanation, or wait for one, she immediately got in front of the cameras like she always does, and started yelling how Abbott is a creep.
A creep because he gave a wink to the radio host who raised an eyebrow? A wink to suggest it's ok, continue on with the caller/show..
I dislike Abbott as much as the next person, but give us a break Sarah.

Now, that other female politician for the Greens, the older lady, she's much more pleasant to listen to.

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Re: The SA Politics Thread

#535 Post by Dog » Tue May 27, 2014 12:05 pm

Top Stories: Liberal defects to back SA Labor Government

Former Liberal leader Martin Hamilton-Smith has declared himself a South Australian independent Liberal and joined the Labor Government as a minister. The former Liberal will become Industry, Trade and Defence Industries Minister. Mr Hamilton-Smith says businesses need certainty and stable government. "I have spoken to [current SA Liberal leader] Steven [Marshall] and explained my position," he said. "What I am focused on is making a contribution. "We are here to do everything we can to make South Australia a better place." The fourth-term Labor Government would have 23 seats and the support of two independents in the 47-seat lower house of the SA Parliament. Mr Hamilton-Smith says he will not be commenting specifically on the state Liberal Party but he has immense respect for th...

Read the full story
http://ab.co/1mvIWga


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Re: The SA Politics Thread

#536 Post by Vee » Tue May 27, 2014 3:13 pm

More on the latest Bombshell in SA politics.

Three reports via @InDaily re Hamilton-Smith's defection:
Hamilton-Smith's long road to Independence
http://indaily.com.au/news/2014/05/27/h ... ependence/

Steven Marshall reacts furiously to news
http://indaily.com.au/news/2014/05/27/h ... -marshall/

Underestimate Weatherill at your peril
http://indaily.com.au/news/2014/05/27/u ... ill-peril/

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Re: The SA Politics Thread

#537 Post by Nort » Tue May 27, 2014 3:31 pm

stumpjumper wrote: What is crook, though, is the practice of paying elected representatives to switch allegiances after the election. THAT should be outlawed.
Depends on how it goes down.

Something like Hamilton-Smiths change now is closer to how our system is intended to work, a member doing what they think will give the better outcome for their electorate. A member switching from the party they ran for in order to to let the other side form government instead is definitely wrong, but the amount of people today thinking that a Liberal should refuse to participate in government unless they have all the power is just petulant.

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Re: The SA Politics Thread

#538 Post by stumpjumper » Tue May 27, 2014 3:44 pm

Hmm. Define "what is best for the electorate".

Is it the electorate's expressed choice of party - by choice of candidate - at the election, or is it the assumption that the electorate would like whatever bag of local goodies the bribing party can put together to convince the elected representative to swap sides?

Why shouldn't the Libs now put together a few million dollar salary/super packages plus electorate spending programs and buy the allegiance of three or four Labor minded members, starting with Gazzola and the
Independents, I would suggest.

Then, once they've bought themselves the balance of power, get up a no-confidence motion, succeed, and trot over to Government House and ask the Governor to appoint the Libs as the government.

What a bullshit way to run the place. Instead of elections, why don't we just have auctions?

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Re: The SA Politics Thread

#539 Post by Nort » Tue May 27, 2014 3:57 pm

I believe I covered that.

If Hamilton-Smith held the balance of power, then him switching to be a part of the Labor government would definitely be a betrayal of his electorate.

In this case however the Labor party had already formed government. At that point how are his electorate best place, by having him in government or in opposition?

My opinion in this regard is a little out of mainstream I can accept however, as I am generally of the opinion that more minor parties and independents would be a good thing in Australian politics. It seems that internationally the countries which consistently have minority governments formed by coalitions from different sides both best represent the population and present the most stability in policy from one term of government to another

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The SA Politics Thread

#540 Post by Dog » Tue May 27, 2014 4:48 pm

As I have said previously it is not electoral boundaries or unfairness that keeps the liberals from government it's their own internal conflict that not only breads independents but then alienates them.


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