[U/C] M2 North-South Motorway

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SBD
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[U/C] Re: M2 North-South Motorway

Post by SBD »

ChillyPhilly wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:29 am
If we're talking politics, then it can be said the Liberals have had sufficient time to plan and finalise - and maybe even commence - the next section after R2P.
We've had a change in priority - the next section they are commencing is through and north of Port Wakefield. That wasn't in the Labor plan. Liberal is also starting Port Augusta, which I think was in the ALP vision, but further out.

I'd also like to see the T2T to Anzac Highway section completed ASAP, and had no problem with the Labor delivery strategy of short tunnels then elevated further south. The thought bubble of deeper bored tunnels has added time to the project as it was a thought discarded long ago under Labor. If they eventuate (and are "better", whatever that means), then the time will have been well-spent. If the tunnel idea goes back into the too hard or too expensive basket (or just doesn't really provide more benefits) then the time thinking about it has been wasted. Unfortunately, the eventual outcome determines whether the time spent was worthwhile.
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[U/C] Re: M2 North-South Motorway

Post by claybro »

SBD wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 9:19 am
ChillyPhilly wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:29 am
If we're talking politics, then it can be said the Liberals have had sufficient time to plan and finalise - and maybe even commence - the next section after R2P.
We've had a change in priority - the next section they are commencing is through and north of Port Wakefield. That wasn't in the Labor plan. Liberal is also starting Port Augusta, which I think was in the ALP vision, but further out.

I'd also like to see the T2T to Anzac Highway section completed ASAP, and had no problem with the Labor delivery strategy of short tunnels then elevated further south. The thought bubble of deeper bored tunnels has added time to the project as it was a thought discarded long ago under Labor. If they eventuate (and are "better", whatever that means), then the time will have been well-spent. If the tunnel idea goes back into the too hard or too expensive basket (or just doesn't really provide more benefits) then the time thinking about it has been wasted. Unfortunately, the eventual outcome determines whether the time spent was worthwhile.
I have no real political affiliation either way, and have actively voted both parties at state and federal, its just on this, both parties have really let the state down, if not actively sabotaged it for short term gain. I am old enough to have become more cynical on this to say that the Libs current focus on projects further north are another example of tackling "low hanging fruit", and the tunnel idea was a massive delay tactic for the hardest section, while allowing them to claim to be doing something. If they turn around and say the long bored tunnel is too expensive and too long (timeframe)-then the cat is out of the bag, because 1. they know a rough cost per kilometre to bore in any given soil in Australia, and 2. they know roughly how long these things take, before all the expensive studies and time delays. Point is-they already know. If they never intended to budget for the reported $10 billion odd tunnel, they should not be studying it in detail. One benefit of a bored tunnel however, is once the TBM is here, and on its job...there will be no pulling out or delaying the last part...there will be no turning back at any change of government.
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[U/C] Re: M2 North-South Motorway

Post by Spotto »

Nort wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:26 am
Upgrades to South Road had been going on continually for a decade prior to the state Labor government leaving office, it seems most likely to me that planning for this remaining section was on track for it to naturally follow on from the current Regency Road section. However they have now been out of office for 2 and a half years, the fact that plans weren't finalised years before they needed to be isn't on them.
Agreed. Labor's work on the corridor progressed in a steady fashion and can be roughly separated into two main phases when projects overlapped: "Phase 1" was the Superway and Southern Expwy Duplication, "Phase 2" of T2T, Darlington and the Northern Connector was well and truly underway when they left office. R2P was already being planned back in 2017 and was officially announced in May 2018 only two months after the election, so I think we can attribute it as started by Labor then pushed ahead by the Liberals post-election. (Note: the timeline below is an estimation based on dates we know, there may have been prior planning that is not listed).

Labor may have started a business case or had a rough idea of what they wanted to build for the final section, but ever since the election the onus has been on the Liberals to actually do it whether they build on whatever groundwork the previous government made or start from scratch with their own vision. If they'd knuckled down to start investigation and planning in late 2018 or early 2019, based on their recently released timeline, we'd be well into early enabling works by now and probably have a rough design. Instead, investigative works are only just now starting and we're not due to receive a reference design until at least 2022. I hope that something must've been happening behind the scenes in these last two years since the election, but it would certainly be interesting to know exactly what was being done.
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[U/C] Re: M2 North-South Motorway

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How much is the remaining 11km section going to cost? I've been looking at figures: Regency to Pym roughly $200m per km, Superway $190m (2013), Torrens to Torrens $200m (2018) and Darlington $230m. I've read figures if it was one tunnel it would cost $11bn, thats almost 5x the average cost so far. NorthConnex in Sydney cost $3bn for 9km. $3bn for 9km is $333 per km, I can't see how a tunnel Adelaide can cost 3x this.
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[U/C] Re: M2 North-South Motorway

Post by how good is he »

I agree... Is it because we dont have the TBMs, havent the skilled labour for them here and would need to import them in, higher dumping costs of all the excavated soil or anyone have any other ideas why?
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[U/C] Re: M2 North-South Motorway

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how good is he wrote:
Fri Aug 28, 2020 1:00 pm
I agree... Is it because we dont have the TBMs, havent the skilled labour for them here and would need to import them in, higher dumping costs of all the excavated soil or anyone have any other ideas why?
We have TBM's being used interstate, why not hire them and crews? It's not like either side of politics in South Australia is going to start work on the remaining major section before the latter half of this decade. And it's not like Labor hasn't brought in Victorians to work on infrastructure projects here in the past.
As for the excavated soil, well they are planning on eventually turning the former salt pans at Dry Creek into housing or or whatever, the soil could be dumped there and used.
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[U/C] Re: M2 North-South Motorway

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TorrensSA wrote:
Fri Aug 28, 2020 11:19 am
How much is the remaining 11km section going to cost? I've been looking at figures: Regency to Pym roughly $200m per km, Superway $190m (2013), Torrens to Torrens $200m (2018) and Darlington $230m. I've read figures if it was one tunnel it would cost $11bn, thats almost 5x the average cost so far. NorthConnex in Sydney cost $3bn for 9km. $3bn for 9km is $333 per km, I can't see how a tunnel Adelaide can cost 3x this.
The $11 billion figure is utter bullshit put out by groups with vested interests and carried by the News Corp monopoly to boost their ratings. One week they print something positive the following week they print something negative and contrary.
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[U/C] Re: M2 North-South Motorway

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What an utterly disappointing bridge.
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[U/C] Re: M2 North-South Motorway

Post by claybro »

rev wrote:
Sun Aug 30, 2020 3:03 pm
TorrensSA wrote:
Fri Aug 28, 2020 11:19 am
How much is the remaining 11km section going to cost? I've been looking at figures: Regency to Pym roughly $200m per km, Superway $190m (2013), Torrens to Torrens $200m (2018) and Darlington $230m. I've read figures if it was one tunnel it would cost $11bn, thats almost 5x the average cost so far. NorthConnex in Sydney cost $3bn for 9km. $3bn for 9km is $333 per km, I can't see how a tunnel Adelaide can cost 3x this.
The $11 billion figure is utter bullshit put out by groups with vested interests and carried by the News Corp monopoly to boost their ratings. One week they print something positive the following week they print something negative and contrary.
Which vested interests though? I would have thought the vested interests are the NIMBYs whipping themselves into a frenzy over heritage who would want a tunnel and therefore play down the costs. The transport industry just want the damn thing finished in the quickest time possible, so if a tunnel makes that happen, then they don't care either. I'm not sure in who's interes it is to inflate the estimate. Most people I'm sure would prefer a tunnel for the whole lot.
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[U/C] Re: M2 North-South Motorway

Post by SRW »

claybro wrote:
Mon Aug 31, 2020 8:53 am
rev wrote:
Sun Aug 30, 2020 3:03 pm
TorrensSA wrote:
Fri Aug 28, 2020 11:19 am
How much is the remaining 11km section going to cost? I've been looking at figures: Regency to Pym roughly $200m per km, Superway $190m (2013), Torrens to Torrens $200m (2018) and Darlington $230m. I've read figures if it was one tunnel it would cost $11bn, thats almost 5x the average cost so far. NorthConnex in Sydney cost $3bn for 9km. $3bn for 9km is $333 per km, I can't see how a tunnel Adelaide can cost 3x this.
The $11 billion figure is utter bullshit put out by groups with vested interests and carried by the News Corp monopoly to boost their ratings. One week they print something positive the following week they print something negative and contrary.
Which vested interests though? I would have thought the vested interests are the NIMBYs whipping themselves into a frenzy over heritage who would want a tunnel and therefore play down the costs. The transport industry just want the damn thing finished in the quickest time possible, so if a tunnel makes that happen, then they don't care either. I'm not sure in who's interes it is to inflate the estimate. Most people I'm sure would prefer a tunnel for the whole lot.
That estimate came from the SA Civil Construction Federation, who would likely stand to gain more work from existing construction methods than from a TBM that would require interstate and international contracts.

But it's a fair enough point that everyone's usually pushing their own wheelbarrow.
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[U/C] Re: M2 North-South Motorway

Post by SBD »

SRW wrote:
Mon Aug 31, 2020 9:10 am
claybro wrote:
Mon Aug 31, 2020 8:53 am
rev wrote:
Sun Aug 30, 2020 3:03 pm


The $11 billion figure is utter bullshit put out by groups with vested interests and carried by the News Corp monopoly to boost their ratings. One week they print something positive the following week they print something negative and contrary.
Which vested interests though? I would have thought the vested interests are the NIMBYs whipping themselves into a frenzy over heritage who would want a tunnel and therefore play down the costs. The transport industry just want the damn thing finished in the quickest time possible, so if a tunnel makes that happen, then they don't care either. I'm not sure in who's interes it is to inflate the estimate. Most people I'm sure would prefer a tunnel for the whole lot.
That estimate came from the SA Civil Construction Federation, who would likely stand to gain more work from existing construction methods than from a TBM that would require interstate and international contracts.

But it's a fair enough point that everyone's usually pushing their own wheelbarrow.
I thought it was the construction industry engaging in "expectation management". If the decision makers think it might cost $11b and it comes in at $9b, they can pat themselves on the back as being good negotiators and everyone will be happy. If the decision makers and public only expected it to cost $6b and it costs $8b, then almost everyone is upset about cost overruns and waste, except the construction industry members who could have got $9b instead.
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[U/C] Re: M2 North-South Motorway

Post by SRW »

SBD wrote:
Mon Aug 31, 2020 9:40 am
SRW wrote:
Mon Aug 31, 2020 9:10 am
claybro wrote:
Mon Aug 31, 2020 8:53 am


Which vested interests though? I would have thought the vested interests are the NIMBYs whipping themselves into a frenzy over heritage who would want a tunnel and therefore play down the costs. The transport industry just want the damn thing finished in the quickest time possible, so if a tunnel makes that happen, then they don't care either. I'm not sure in who's interes it is to inflate the estimate. Most people I'm sure would prefer a tunnel for the whole lot.
That estimate came from the SA Civil Construction Federation, who would likely stand to gain more work from existing construction methods than from a TBM that would require interstate and international contracts.

But it's a fair enough point that everyone's usually pushing their own wheelbarrow.
I thought it was the construction industry engaging in "expectation management". If the decision makers think it might cost $11b and it comes in at $9b, they can pat themselves on the back as being good negotiators and everyone will be happy. If the decision makers and public only expected it to cost $6b and it costs $8b, then almost everyone is upset about cost overruns and waste, except the construction industry members who could have got $9b instead.
Probably that too.

I know there's a sense of damned if we do, damned if we don't for governments in project management. But honestly, if the default position was transparency, and light was shone on all parts of the process, I feel like there'd be less scope for controversy.
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[U/C] Re: M2 North-South Motorway

Post by Spotto »

If we do end up using TBMs for the hybrid option, once the planning for Torrens to Darlington is done immediately start planning on Cross Road so that the TBMs can be transitioned straight over once they’re ready and start digging. Already having the TBMs and crews assembled will reduce costs, and the NSM-SEF link is the next essential piece of suburban road infrastructure.

In a similar way to how the Superway acted as a pseudo-proof of concept and show of commitment for the NSM, the T2D tunnels can act as the testing ground for future tunnel links.

I’m not sure how conditions affect costings between Sydney and Adelaide but the new M8 Tunnel is a similar length to Cross Road and was dug with TBMs at a cost of $4.3b.
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[U/C] Re: M2 North-South Motorway

Post by SBD »

Does it need a completely different TBM to make tunnels in rock than to make tunnels in silt/mud/dirt, or is it just a change of cutting head? SA already has experience of making railway tunnels in the Adelaide Hills the old fashioned way, and the Heysen Tunnels by a more recent method. There are also a few underground mines with decline access. Carrapateena Mine's decline is effectively a long tunnel I believe.
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[U/C] Re: M2 North-South Motorway

Post by claybro »

SBD wrote:
Mon Aug 31, 2020 9:40 am
SRW wrote:
Mon Aug 31, 2020 9:10 am
claybro wrote:
Mon Aug 31, 2020 8:53 am


Which vested interests though? I would have thought the vested interests are the NIMBYs whipping themselves into a frenzy over heritage who would want a tunnel and therefore play down the costs. The transport industry just want the damn thing finished in the quickest time possible, so if a tunnel makes that happen, then they don't care either. I'm not sure in who's interes it is to inflate the estimate. Most people I'm sure would prefer a tunnel for the whole lot.
That estimate came from the SA Civil Construction Federation, who would likely stand to gain more work from existing construction methods than from a TBM that would require interstate and international contracts.

But it's a fair enough point that everyone's usually pushing their own wheelbarrow.
I thought it was the construction industry engaging in "expectation management". If the decision makers think it might cost $11b and it comes in at $9b, they can pat themselves on the back as being good negotiators and everyone will be happy. If the decision makers and public only expected it to cost $6b and it costs $8b, then almost everyone is upset about cost overruns and waste, except the construction industry members who could have got $9b instead.
Will be interesting to see the final costing and justifications. Comparing various tunnel projects around the country on a cost/km basis really gives no clue. The Forrestfield rail tunnel being constructed in Perth includes 3 new stations (2 underground) and an 8km tunnel under the Swan River (water table issues), under airport runways and terminating in the Eastern suburbs. The cost is 1.9 billion using 2x TBM machines. Even allowing for duplicated road tunnels in Adelaide...it still works out way cheaper than any quoted price mentioned for NSM in Adelaide so far. There have been issues with the soft sandy soil in Perth causing subsidence on the surface-to the point where it has now been reported there will be no further tunnels for the Perth Metro using the bored method.
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