[U/C] M2 North-South Motorway

[marbles]

The Cadbury building just north of the Torrens appears to be in the early stages of being knocked down.

They've been at the back end of that site demolishing it for ages.

the team is still busy eating the remaining chocolate

[Vasco]

Anyone have access to post this?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[rogue]

Ask and ye shall receive

Decision time is rapidly approaching on the future of the 10.5km North-South road corridor between the River Torrens and Darlington

Paul Starick
August 19, 2022 - 3:00PM

Decision time is rapidly approaching on the future of the North-South Corridor – and 6km of tunnels under Adelaide is looking more and more remote as costs soar.

Decision time is rapidly approaching on the future of the state’s biggest infrastructure project, the $9.9bn, 10.5km North-South road corridor between the River Torrens and Darlington.

The prospect of more than 6km of tunnels underneath Adelaide’s western suburbs is looking more and more remote as costs soar.

Instead, there are likely to be shorter tunnels and more lowered roadways gouged along South Rd’s current route. Acquiring land and excavating a channel to build the motorway – as happened from the River Torrens to Torrens Rd – is likely to be less costly than tunnels. But more land acquisition would ignite anger among affected property owners, creating a political headache.

A project review is expected to be completed – but possibly not publicly released yet – within days. It is understood the end of August was set as the scheduled target for finishing this Infrastructure and Transport Department review, commissioned by the Labor government shortly after winning the March state election.

Already, soaring inflation has sent costs spiralling. The Advertiser in late June revealed the $9.9bn forecast cost had swollen to about $14bn. It was also understood a cost-benefit analysis returned a ratio of less than one – an industry measurement meaning the costs outweigh the benefits of going ahead.

Two months later and The Advertiser has been told the project costs, depending on the options, range up to $15bn.

Senior business figures are questioning the economic benefit of an expensive road that might make commuters’ lives easier but might not be worth the huge money. After all, what sensible business or government would pour money into an investment that returned less than it cost? Cabinet ministers are aware of this criticism and the risk to the state’s finances.

At his June 2 state budget press conference, Treasurer Stephen Mullighan declared he wanted the North-South corridor and the $2.1bn new Women’s and Children’s Hospital projects “delivered as quickly as possible” – before costs inflated still further and added to net debt already forecast to increase to almost $34bn by 2025-26

“My challenge is to limit any further debt increase beyond those two projects as much as possible. And the challenge for the Cabinet, particularly over the next two years, will be to recalibrate how much our spending is growing each year, and how much our infrastructure spending will be in those years of those two projects being on the state’s books,” he said

Infrastructure project costs are soaring. The Australian Constructors Association on July 28 released a report citing examples of price rises of up to 70 per cent over a 12-month period, cautioning against governments trying to escape the problem by delaying or deferring projects and warning “the industry cannot continue to bear the cost of these steep price increases”.

Inflation has taken off since the mid-February pledge that the motorway was fully costed – delivered by the-then prime minister Scott Morrison when he unveiled a $2.26bn boost for the corridor alongside the-then premier Steven Marshall. At the time, the plan was for two stages. The first, which had been due to start next year at a total cost of $5.422bn, involved building 4km-long tunnels connecting Darlington to Anzac Hwy.

The second, $4.48bn stage involved more than 2km of tunnels from Torrensville from 2026. Both tunnels were to be joined by a lowered, twin three-lane motorway, allowing non-stop travel from Gawler to Old Noarlunga. Compulsory acquisitions were set at 393 properties.

Almost nine years ago, the-then prime minister Tony Abbott in October, 2013, declared he could “get the whole North-South Road Corridor upgraded within a decade” if a state Liberal government was elected in 2013. But Labor was returned and Mr Mullighan, as transport minister, forged a bipartisan alliance with SA federal Liberal minister Jamie Briggs to in August, 2015, leverage $1.5 billion for two major parts of the corridor — the Torrens Rd to River Torrens section and Darlington section. In one of his final acts as prime minister, Mr Abbott in September, 2015, tipped in $788m to kickstart the $985m Northern Connector, linking the Port River and Northern expressways and South Rd Superway. The connector opened to traffic in March, 2020.

Since then, there’s been plenty of talk and not much action. Mr Abbott’s vision of a non-stop motorway by 2023 will not be realised. If cost pressures result in changes to smaller tunnels and more property acquisitions, at least there would be a cheaper motorway. But is the political and debt cost still too much to bear?

[Goodsy]

A complete wankfest of an opinion piece. Mr Abbott's vision?

[[Shuz]]

Honestly, if the cost benefit ratio is less than one right now, why would we bother spending $14b? We don't even have $14b to spend.

The money saved could be redirected into other smaller and meaningful projects which with a higher cost benefit ratio and would go a long way to improving the road and public transport networks as a whole.

One such project would be to fix the Marion Road/Holbrooks Road/East Avenue/David Terrace and Hanson Road doglegs. Create an alternative north-south corridor to relieve pressure off South Road.

[SBD]

Honestly, if the cost benefit ratio is less than one right now, why would we bother spending $14b? We don't even have $14b to spend.

The money saved could be redirected into other smaller and meaningful projects which with a higher cost benefit ratio and would go a long way to improving the road and public transport networks as a whole.

One such project would be to fix the Marion Road/Holbrooks Road/East Avenue/David Terrace and Hanson Road doglegs. Create an alternative north-south corridor to relieve pressure off South Road.

What would you like the cost benefit ratio to be? I’m sure they can choose which costs and benefits are included at what value to get the number you want.

Should the calculations include a future Mount Barker link? Is that a benefit of removing traffic from Portrush and Cross Roads, or a cost of extra construction? It won’t be relevant if the missing bit is not built first.

Do you count reduced commute time and airport access by having to cross less traffic at South Road and Marion Road?

It seems the original former Labor Government focus was freight movement, but the current Labor Government focus is on commuter traffic, so the costs and benefits are weighted differently.

What disposal cost should be included for tunnel boring machines? Can they be adapted from drilling in soft silt to drilling in rock? Are they the right size for the commuter rail tunnel under the city that is often raised in another thread here?

Is removing ageing underground infrastructure and replacing with new pipes etc a cost or a benefit (of it not failing for another 50 years)? Should works to improve Marion Road as a construction bypass be counted as extra costs or enduring benefits?

There’s plenty of wiggle room to get the answer you want, to cancel it completely or switch back to cut and cover tunnels instead of bored deeper ones, and to decide how to go over or under the Torrens. Especially if you don’t consider the social costs of more open trench. Has the benefit changed because the industrial areas based on Hills and Mitsubishi have closed?

[[Shuz]]

Well, if the projects gonna cost $14b, I don't think it'd be unrealistic to expect a CBR of at least 1.4x - get $20b in economic return as a result.

[SBD]

Well, if the projects gonna cost $14b, I don't think it'd be unrealistic to expect a CBR of at least 1.4x - get $20b in economic return as a result.

Short South plus NSM is a way to reduce heavy traffic on the South Eastern Freeway. NSM on its own does not affect this. What benefit value should one assign to the first half of that route? What would be the economic value of not having as many trucks descend to Glen Osmond? There’s probably more economic value in a few crashes! A truck safely descending the hill employs one driver. Crashing employs repair people, tow,truck operators, doctors, nurses, ambulances, fire and rescue etc. I haven’t checked the crash rate of the major intersections on the current South Road, and whether the NSM significantly changed the rates on other intersections.

[muzzamo]

I think we would have been far better off keeping with the pattern of the last 15 years - a $1 Billion dollar, 2-5km project at at time.

We would probably be further along than halting everything and debating a "big bang" 14 Billion dollar tunnel.

It's also a way of managing the risk in smaller chunks. But it doesn't lend itself well to tunnelling.

[SBD]

I think we would have been far better off keeping with the pattern of the last 15 years - a $1 Billion dollar, 2-5km project at at time.

We would probably be further along than halting everything and debating a "big bang" 14 Billion dollar tunnel.

It's also a way of managing the risk in smaller chunks. But it doesn't lend itself well to tunnelling.

The 2015 plan identified sections of elevated, lowered and tunneled (cut-and-cover), with the interface of each section being at ground level to make it easy to do in sections without much reworking. Both T2T and Darlington came under budget by enough to have ventured part way into the adjacent section.

The two sections then identified as the highest priority were R4 (South of Ashwin Parade to South of Sir Donald Bradman Drive) and R5 (South of Sir Donald Bradman to South of Glenelg Tram). The plan offered two sequences for work to proceed (T2T and Darlington were both funded at the time of the report, Superway was complete, Northern Connector did not exist but was closer to progressing through Infrastructure Australia). Both plans completed the T2T to Darlington (not quite 6 sections) in three groups, starting at the northern end. They interleaved work on the northern parts that are now completed in different orders.

The interlude with Liberal government for four years rejigged the plan to deep tunnels which had not been proposed, and switched to working from south to north. The original plan had elevated roads over Edward Street to Daws Road (inclusive) and the Torrens, and lowered elsewhere, with covered tunnels at Henley Beach, Sir Donald Bradman and James Congdon.

[[email protected]]

This project will be re announced before the federal budget in October with new guidelines and maybe more exits

[[Shuz]]

SURELY... Daws Road and Cross Road exits!?

[SBD]

SURELY... Daws Road and Cross Road exits!?

If there's an exit at the current end of the Southern Expressway, another exit before Daws Road would avoid the pedestrian crossing near St Bernadette's church, traffic lights at Celtic Avenue, another pedestrian crossing near Aldi, and the stop lights in front of the MFS. Is Daws Road that much of a destination to not be able to use those northbound?

Cross Road to the Anzac Highway on ramp looks like it's only one pedestrian crossing and one set of traffic lights, too. Considering how many traffic lights etc there are between Glen Osmond and South Road, having to go through two more to get back onto a freeway doesn't seem significant. It will matter once a freeway/expressway is provided to not have any traffic lights from Monarto to Osborne, but we don't yet know if that will use an alignment near Cross Road or somewhere completely different.

For now, there is ONE set of traffic lights between the River Torrens and Port Pirie - and they were installed last year, at the same time as work to remove bottlenecks at Port Wakefield.

[aceman]

This project will be re announced before the federal budget in October with new guidelines and maybe more exits

My gut feeling is that the previous longer north and south tunnels will go and a T2T style trench used instead. The argument will be that property acquisition will be cheaper than tunneling.

[SBD]

This project will be re announced before the federal budget in October with new guidelines and maybe more exits

My gut feeling is that the previous longer north and south tunnels will go and a T2T style trench used instead. The argument will be that property acquisition will be cheaper than tunneling.

Do you think it will be back to the 2015 version with an elevated road between Tonsley and Edwardstown, or do you think there will be more trench? It will clearly require bridges at several cross streets, but design of exits will need to be careful to ensure that traffic light queues don't trail back into the expressway itself. That seems to be the reason for the proposed flyover at Anzac Highway and the one at Ayliffes Road.